Wire'd, Oct. 8

What Matthew Yglesias says in regards to the Police Department's support of Carcetti after Mayor Royce's continued meddling. This is a pile-off situation, in which one supporters' decision to jump ship makes it easier for everyone else to leave as well, since the risk of being the only outsider is greatly reduced. In other words, when it rains, it pours.

But what can a viewer make of Royce's recent troubles? The Wire is too unpredictable to have a Carcetti win without any significant strings, so what else could be cooking?

1. Royce wins. How deliciously nihilistic would that be?

2. Gray wins. Since his falling-out with Carcetti, Gray has been a non-entity on the show and is only discussed as a can't-win who only serves to siphon votes from Royce. Perhaps he'll siphon enough votes to win the primary, in which case he can choose either to reach out of Carcetti or to bury him.

3. Carcetti wins, but with strings. Sensing an opening, will he make bargains with all the important power-brokers who are all of a sudden willing to bail on Royce, only to find himself as a mayor with no freedom of action? A clear and unambiguous Carcetti win could only advance the show if he runs up against a BPD and political establishment dead set on destroying him. The show has emphasized the intractability of corruption and sclerosis in all hierarchical organizations, whether it's the city government or the Barksdale organization. There has never been a truly happy ending to a season of The Wire, so nobody should expect one this time around.